I am just, for fun, looking through different mathematical patterns and bio-mechanical workings of the true fabric of evolution..here is where I begin..
(I CUT AND PASTE THIS TEXT)
Molecules and phylogenies
Back in the mid-1980s we started hearing a lot about "African Eve." As we note on this weblog, there were two parts of this:
1) A caution not to overread the results into imagining a single foremother.
2) The popular press basically ignoring this caution.
But here are a few "fun facts."
1) The probability of fixation of a new mutation is 1/2N, where N is the population size.
2) The time until fixation is usually 4N, where N is the population size.
3) 1/2N X 2Nμ, where μ is the mutation rate, reflects the reality that the probability of mutation times the rate of mutation results in the substitution, the turnover of alleles, on loci being a function just of mutation rate (μ).
4) Time until extinction of an allele is usually 2Ne/N X ln(2N).
5) The long term effective population is 1/t(1/N0 + ... + 1/Nt - 1).
You can do some "plug & chug" in Excel if you want to check out the long term effective population, but trust me when I tell you that it is far closer to the low bound as a function of time than the high bound as far as what your intuition would tell you.
http://www.gnxp.com/blog/2005/11/8th-grade-math-for-rest-of-us.php
1 comment:
This is great info to know.
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