Ray Kurzweil first began speculating about the future when he was a child, but only later as an adult did he become seriously involved with trying to accurately forecast future events. Kurzweil came to realize that his success as an inventor depended largely on proper timing: His new inventions had to be released onto the market only once many other, supporting technologies had come into existence. A device issued too early and without proper refinement would lack some key element of functionality, and a device put out too late would find the market already flooded with a different product, or consumers demanding something better.
It thus became imperative for Kurzweil to have an understanding of the rates and directions of technological development. He has, throughout his adult life, kept close track of advances in the computer and machine industries, and has precisely modeled them. By extrapolating past trends into the future, Kurzweil has found a way to predict the course of technological development.
After several years of closely tracking these trends, Kurzweil came to realize that the innovation rate of computer technology was increasing in an exponential- as opposed to linear manner. As a computer scientist, Kurzweil also understood that there was no technical reason that this type of performance growth could not continue well into the 21st century.
Since growth in so many fields of science and technology depends upon the power of computers, improvements to computing power translate into improvements to human knowledge and to non-computer sciences like nanotechnology, biotechnology, and materials science. Considering the ongoing exponential growth in computer capabilities, this means fantastic new technologies will become available long before the vast majority of people--who intuitively think linearly about technological advance--expect. This core idea is expressed by Kurzweil's "Law of Accelerating Returns."
Touching on his most important predictions, Kurzweil believes that, between now and 2050, technology will become so advanced that new medicines and medical techniques will allow people to radically extend their lifespans while preserving and even improving quality of life. The aging process could at first be slowed, then halted, and then reversed as newer and better medical technologies became available. Kurzweil believes that much of this will be thanks to medical nanotechnology, which will allow microscopic machines to travel through one's body and repair all types of damage at the cellular level. But equally consequential developments will occur within the realm of computers as they become increasingly powerful, numerous and cheap between now and 2050. Kurzweil believes that they will gain the ability to think for themselves and will thus become Artificially Intelligent. An Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) could handle the full range of human intellectual tasks and would be both emotional and self-aware. Kurzweil believes that A.I.'s will inevitably become far smarter and more powerful than humans, and will come to dominate the world in many ways. But he also believes that humanity will be protected from extermination because machines will exhibit moral thinking and will respect humans as their ancestors, and because the line between humans and machines will have--by the time the machines become powerful enough to take over--blurred thanks to the widespread use of cybernetics among the human population. Cybernetic implants will greatly enhance human cognitive and physical abilities, and allow direct interface between humans and machines. Humans and machines will exist on a continuum instead of as two, distinct species. His beliefs regarding (among other things) the potential for human immortality and the peaceful rise of a supreme machine race place Kurzweil amongst the most personally optimistic of futurists.
Ray Kurzweil is now one of the world's leading futurists, and spends a great deal of time giving public lectures and making T.V. appearances to explain his ideas, which have only been very basically summarized thus far by this section. Kurzweil is also a Transhumanist because he believes it is ethical and beneficial for people to use technology--including radical technologies that don't yet exist--to improve their lives and to improve the world as a whole. For example, as a Transhumanist, Kurzweil sees no problem with allowing people to forever cheat death through the use of advanced technologies or to upgrade themselves to superhuman extremes through cybernetics, whereas most non-Transhumanists would reject these ideas on religious grounds or because they violate the laws of nature and the fundamental norms of human life. In fact, Kurzweil believes that radical, technology-based improvements to human beings will lead them to richer, more satisfying lives in which they may also better contribute to the rest of society.
Kurzweil's standing as a leading futurist and Transhumanist have gained him positions of prominence within pertinent organizations:
In December 2004, Kurzweil joined the advisory board of the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence.
In October 2005, Kurzweil joined the scientific advisory board of the Lifeboat Foundation.
On May 13, 2006, Kurzweil was the first speaker at the Stanford University Singularity Summit.
Futurism, as a philosophical or academic study, looks at the medium to long-term future in an attempt to predict based on current trends. Raymond Kurzweil states his belief that the future of humanity is being determined by an exponential expansion of knowledge, and that the very rate of the change of this exponential growth is driving our collective destiny irrespective of our narrow sightedness, clinging archaisms, or fear of change. Our biological evolution, according to Kurzweil, is on the verge of being superseded by our technological evolution. An evolution conjoined of cogent biological manipulation with a possible emerging self-aware, self-organizing machine intelligence. The rate of the change of the exponential explosion of knowledge and technology not only envelops us, but also irreversibly transforms us.
Accordingly, in Kurzweil's predictions, we are currently (as of the end of the twentieth and the beginning of the twenty first century) exiting the era in which our human biology is closed to us, and are entering into the posthuman era, in which our extensive knowledge of biochemistry, neurology and cybernetics will allow us to rebuild our bodies and our minds from the ground up. Kurzweil believes that Strong A.I., advanced nanotechnology and cybernetics are enabling technologies that will initiate the Posthuman Era through a disruptive, worldwide event known as the Singularity. By extrapolating past and current trends of technological growth into the future, Kurzweil has concluded that the aforementioned technologies will be available in 2045, and that the Singularity will thus occur in the same year.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Electronic Device Addiction By Anne Patterson
By Anne Patterson
As uses for computer chips evolve, new ways of operating in the remodeling business continue to appear. Many remodelers have become attached to their hand-held electronic gadgets, claiming that they can't imagine doing without them. However, there are still a few who prefer to stick to most of their old ways.
Cell phones: Probably the most ubiquitous electronic tool for contractors is the cell phone. Mark Yandell, Yandell Construction of Chicago suburb Lake Bluff, Ill., describes his relationship with his own. "I need it more than any other device ... but I hate it," he says. "Today everyone wants an answer instantly. They don't take responsibility and think for themselves anymore. But it does let me contact my men in the field immediately. And I save time by making my calls while I'm driving." (The city of Chicago, like a growing number of municipalities, requires drivers to use hands-free devices with cell phones.)
Personal digital assistants: Mark Dixon is very attached to his Microsoft Word-based personal digital assistant. "It's like a small, hand-held computer," says Mark, who is vice president and co-owner of Legacy Custom Building & Remodeling Inc. (Scottsdale, Ariz.). "It has a keyboard that folds up, making it a wallet-sized package. I type my project notes on it and send them to my laptop computer. I also find it very handy in keeping my appointments straight."
Cell phone/computer combinations: Ken Rabbins, president of Building Systems Technology, New York, loves his combination cell phone/Palm Pilot. "It interfaces with my computer," he says. "I can take a spread sheet along to the project with me. I can sketch on it and send the drawing off. It also allows me to send and receive email."
Project managers at design/build remodeler Benvenuti & Stein (Evanston, Ill.) also use combination cell phone/handheld computers, which interface with their laptop computers. While in the field, they take project notes and zap them sent back to their computers in the office. As with all PDA-type devices, their instruments contain a calendar for recording appointments and allow ready access to stored phone numbers and addresses.
Digital cameras: Ken and Mark both frequently use digital cameras to document the progress of a project. "I can send someone a picture immediately," Ken says. "In New York City, documentation of a project is important because of all the code requirements. Additionally, you can send an absent client pictures showing how the project is coming along."
Laser tape measures: Neil Fortunato, president of Fortunato Builders, Renovation Specialists (Highland Park, Ill.), would hate to give up his laser tape measure. "It gives me the length, width, height and volume of a space in no time flat," he says. But aside from the tape measure and his cell phone, he uses no other electronic gadgets. "I still find it very easy to write down all my appointments in an old fashioned appointment book," he says.
Exceptions aside, whether we love them or hate them, most of us can't live without our gadgets.
As uses for computer chips evolve, new ways of operating in the remodeling business continue to appear. Many remodelers have become attached to their hand-held electronic gadgets, claiming that they can't imagine doing without them. However, there are still a few who prefer to stick to most of their old ways.
Cell phones: Probably the most ubiquitous electronic tool for contractors is the cell phone. Mark Yandell, Yandell Construction of Chicago suburb Lake Bluff, Ill., describes his relationship with his own. "I need it more than any other device ... but I hate it," he says. "Today everyone wants an answer instantly. They don't take responsibility and think for themselves anymore. But it does let me contact my men in the field immediately. And I save time by making my calls while I'm driving." (The city of Chicago, like a growing number of municipalities, requires drivers to use hands-free devices with cell phones.)
Personal digital assistants: Mark Dixon is very attached to his Microsoft Word-based personal digital assistant. "It's like a small, hand-held computer," says Mark, who is vice president and co-owner of Legacy Custom Building & Remodeling Inc. (Scottsdale, Ariz.). "It has a keyboard that folds up, making it a wallet-sized package. I type my project notes on it and send them to my laptop computer. I also find it very handy in keeping my appointments straight."
Cell phone/computer combinations: Ken Rabbins, president of Building Systems Technology, New York, loves his combination cell phone/Palm Pilot. "It interfaces with my computer," he says. "I can take a spread sheet along to the project with me. I can sketch on it and send the drawing off. It also allows me to send and receive email."
Project managers at design/build remodeler Benvenuti & Stein (Evanston, Ill.) also use combination cell phone/handheld computers, which interface with their laptop computers. While in the field, they take project notes and zap them sent back to their computers in the office. As with all PDA-type devices, their instruments contain a calendar for recording appointments and allow ready access to stored phone numbers and addresses.
Digital cameras: Ken and Mark both frequently use digital cameras to document the progress of a project. "I can send someone a picture immediately," Ken says. "In New York City, documentation of a project is important because of all the code requirements. Additionally, you can send an absent client pictures showing how the project is coming along."
Laser tape measures: Neil Fortunato, president of Fortunato Builders, Renovation Specialists (Highland Park, Ill.), would hate to give up his laser tape measure. "It gives me the length, width, height and volume of a space in no time flat," he says. But aside from the tape measure and his cell phone, he uses no other electronic gadgets. "I still find it very easy to write down all my appointments in an old fashioned appointment book," he says.
Exceptions aside, whether we love them or hate them, most of us can't live without our gadgets.
iRobot
January 10, 2007 iRobot has unveiled iRobot Create, an affordable, programmable robot designed for aspiring roboticists. Create is based on the core technology of iRobot Roomba, the vacuuming robot that is cleaning millions of homes worldwide, and is compatible with Roomba’s rechargeable batteries, remote control and other accessories. Create comes pre-assembled, so developers can design new robots without having to build a mobile robot from scratch. Pricing starts at US$130, enabling developers to begin designing new robot applications out of the box. This new platform provides access to robot sensors and actuators via an open interface. Create also features standard connections for electronics and threaded mounting holes that allow users to secure their inventions to the robot, streamlining the integration of third-party electronics such as sensors, cameras, arms and wireless connections.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Saturday, May 10, 2008
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